PV Panel prices going up soon?

[Worcester]

JJPJ -
The companies are being set up directly by the panel manufacturers.
See my post on the Anti-Dumping Duty and you'll understand that the risk may be quite small, if they just do it untill the 6/6/2013

Care to introduce yourself - what's your background?

 

[Earthstore]

JJPJ -
The companies are being set up directly by the panel manufacturers.
See my post on the Anti-Dumping Duty and you'll understand that the risk may be quite small, if they just do it untill the 6/6/2013

Care to introduce yourself - what's your background?

Sounds like a spy, firing one over the bow....

 

[Tesla1980]

everythings going up soon :rolleyes4:

 

[JJPJ]

Haven’t seen your post Worcester so not sure what you mean by small risk, different takes on the retrospective but some are certainly expecting it & if a manufacturer’s margin is 5% I can’t see how duty of 30-80% can be considered marginal. A month or 2 of shipments with the AD can burn you a YEAR or two of profits.. What’s also not clear is why go to the trouble of setting up a new company, location doesn’t have any bearing on things so can’t see how this helps unless you’re planning to fold as soon as things hit the fan, or perhaps you’re pooling risk together with other suppliers? Any duty applied will be company specific however (same as the US case), if your product is China free (Taiwanese etc) there’s no point in pooling with others, if it ain’t you’re as likely to increase your risk given you have a better knowledge of your own company’s circumstances than those of others. In the US duties varied from zero to 30 to 250%, not small differences, you’d think it would be safer for each to go his own way & hope for the best (unless you were sure to be in trouble, in which case nobody would want pool with you..) Am probably missing something, otherwise it does sound a kinda peculiar solution. Come from another biz over the pond, was planning to do something with solar here but will take it easy now till things get cleared up in Europe.

 

[Gavin A]

Haven’t seen your post Worcester so not sure what you mean by small risk, different takes on the retrospective but some are certainly expecting it & if a manufacturer’s margin is 5% I can’t see how duty of 30-80% can be considered marginal. A month or 2 of shipments with the AD can burn you a YEAR or two of profits.. What’s also not clear is why go to the trouble of setting up a new company, location doesn’t have any bearing on things so can’t see how this helps unless you’re planning to fold as soon as things hit the fan, or perhaps you’re pooling risk together with other suppliers? Any duty applied will be company specific however (same as the US case), if your product is China free (Taiwanese etc) there’s no point in pooling with others, if it ain’t you’re as likely to increase your risk given you have a better knowledge of your own company’s circumstances than those of others. In the US duties varied from zero to 30 to 250%, not small differences, you’d think it would be safer for each to go his own way & hope for the best (unless you were sure to be in trouble, in which case nobody would want pool with you..) Am probably missing something, otherwise it does sound a kinda peculiar solution. Come from another biz over the pond, was planning to do something with solar here but will take it easy now till things get cleared up in Europe.

It'd be the chinese manufacturers setting up a company to do the importing themselves and then take the hit on any duty that did get imposed directly.

Presumably it's better for them to do that and maintain market share in the world's biggest solar market than to have their plants sat idle, and I could well imagine the chinese government stepping in to pay the duty directly, then recouping it by levying a tax on some EU product, or just charging the EU a bit more interest to borrow form them or something.

Either way, if they're prepared to shoulder the risk, then that should stabilise the situation a lot.

 

[JJPJ]

It'd be the chinese manufacturers setting up a company to do the importing themselves and then take the hit on any duty that did get imposed directly.

Any idea which manufacturers and where Gavin? All the big Chinese already have subsidiaries in Europe, what’s the point in them setting up new ones ad-hoc, why not use their existing ones?


Still, I follow your reasoning & whilst there could be some sense to it (without the opening up new companies bit, unless there’s something else behind the picture) I personally don’t see them selling (or even trying to sell) too much this way. The hit they’d take is too big & no-one can afford that right now. They’d be better off selling more to higher price markets (Japan, US, Aus), or anywhere else in fact, with say 30% EU duty you’re better off selling 20% cheaper in any market.


No point in them keeping their Chinese fabs too busy, US & EU with AD means they have to make product outside of China for a good portion of world demand. Better for them to shift their sourcing & supply chains outside of China asap, focus on new markets & cut their sales (erm losses) in EU until China-free production is ramped up.


Sorry if I sound less optimistic, I think your scenario could work but more likely with them just trickling in a little product to show they’re not abandoning the EU & keep their client base working with something. Not enough to avoid prices rising however, helping them in turn to get the market to restabilise at a higher level once the China-free product is available, offsetting the higher costs they’ll have under this new supply chain & maybe even recuperating margins. Would love to be wrong but can’t see anything other than prices heading north.

 

[Gavin A]

I think it was Worcester that mentioned that, and IIRC he's been importing direct so might be in a better position to know than me, I was just paraphrasing.

I can't believe how nuts it is that the EU would spend so much money building up the global solar industry only to destroy it again with this ill conceived policy. It's not going to save EU manufacturers, only making themselves cost competitive with the chinese can do that, along with a massive increase in the solar market so everyone can operate at full capacity again - EU should have stepped in to reverse the impact of the FIT cuts across Europe to stimulate demand if they wanted to save the EU solar manufacturers, not this, anything but this.

 

[SRE]

Another wholesaler is suggesting this morning that it could be December before we get some clarity - anyone else heard this?

 

[moggy1968]

Yep, the big K told me.
I suppose introducing uncertainty into the market for almost a year is a backdoor way of killing Chinese imports without having to go through all that messy legislation stuff.
It's a proper shambles.
Why the hell do we stay in the EU?
Oh yeh, keep all those MEPs and other parasites in work!!
We could easilly pull out and stay within the free trade zone or whatever it's called, like switzerland and others. The financial drain of being in the EU really isn't worth it, and thats without the nonsence legislation they come out with!!

 

[Gavin A]

be careful what you wish for there moggy.

The EU has been the main driver behind UK & european renewable energy policy and targets over the last decade, and remains the key driver through to at least 2020 as it's EU targets we've committed to meeting.

This current situation is a major blemish on the EU record, and tbh with this and their handling of the financial crisis they're properly making a pigs ear of things, but that seems to be just reflecting the collective insanity on economic policies that's swept across europe recently, with the UK being a key driving force in that madness.

 

[moggy1968]

You don't have to be in the EU to have renewable energy targets.

Currently it looks to be the main driver for the centralisation of energy production to meet those targets. and the shambles that is this industry.
The Uk isn't a major player in EU politics, never have been, never will be. we were left behind years ago. We just like to think we are. The Eu is driven by the french and the Germans. Always has been, always will be. It's their private party and we weren't invited. We are that rather awkward uninvited guest everyone wishes wasn't there because they keep saying embarassing things!

 

[Gavin A]

well, it was the UK that was the driving force behind the plan to cut the EU budget in real terms that got approved my the council of ministers in Feb, but rejected by the MEPs in March. So I think it'd be fair to say that we're a major player in the drive to spread austerity policies through the EU at a time of deep financial crisis for most of the continent.


On targets - no we don't have to be in for that, but it'd leave it all a lot more to the whim of each government to chop and change the targets or ignore them completely if we weren't.

 

[JJPJ]

I can understand the frustration with the AD impacting the market this year in the crucial spring upseason, but I think some are missing the point. The issue is not so much the EU (the US has already ruled on this & there’s a dozen other cases broiling around the world), which in any case as Gavin rightly pointed out has been the main driver behind the industry thanks to the 2020 binding commitments, or a sudden rebirth of protectionist mania, or silly politicians wanting trade wars. It’s actually about the huge imbalance between supply & demand (the former 2-5 times global demand depending on who you talk to) created by a crazy rush to ramp-up by every Tom, Dick & Harry in China, making it impossible for any company anywhere (including China) to make any money. Personally I doubt (& hope I’m not wrong) that this was a deliberate strategy from the Chinese govt, it was more likely a case of irresponsible negligence allowing the sector to grow so quickly, but that’s almost beside the point. The sad outcome is that we were heading for a gynormous car crash, prices were completely unsustainable & we now have GW ‘s of product around the world that effectively will be without anyone to back the warranty. The AD case if nothing more will help separate the wheat from the chaff, it won’t be painless but from an installer’s point of view long term it’s better than building your business on something destined to finish in a bloodbath.


To answer SRE’s question yes the uncomfortable reality is that things won’t be clear until December, the EU will make a preliminary ruling in May/June but the final decision on duties (which will be made individually for each company) will not be until the end of this year. Beware of tomfoolery in the meantime, in the US at least 1 big Chinese manufacturer got hit by higher duties following large imports made to squeeze in product before the ruling became effective. They’re now effectively bankrupt, much to the dismay of their installers & customers..

 

[JJPJ]

To add a rosier note the US market has not suffered from the AD ruling there, demand is up & prospects look good. Goes to show there’s more to PV than a race to the bottom.

 

[solarfred]

I have heard a strong rumour that the duty imposed could be at the upper limit around 85%. That will kill off any direct Chinese imports. Funny though I do not expect all Chinese suppliers to go under as they are not stupid. It may weed out the over levereged producers and the real chancers. Once we know for sure normal supply will resume at excellent prices for excellent products I wager. Politicians have rarely started and run a successful business so will always be playing catching up.

 

[moggy1968]

I have heard a strong rumour that the duty imposed could be at the upper limit around 85%. That will kill off any direct Chinese imports. Funny though I do not expect all Chinese suppliers to go under as they are not stupid. It may weed out the over levereged producers and the real chancers. .

you mean like suntec?

 

[solarfred]

If you can't manage your debt burden at 0% interest rates there is no chance when inflation kicks in.

 

[solarfred]

Taken from Spiegel Online:
Brussels - European Solar Companies have long call to action, now it's apparently done: The European Union has high protective tariffs on Chinese solar products on the way. The insider confirmed SPIEGEL ONLINE. The duties are from the 6 Enter into force in June and is on average 47 percent.

The issue was on the agenda at the Commission. You must consult the Member States before the official announcement of the tariffs. They have until 5 June time to give their opinion on the Commission proposal. However, they can not prevent the Commission's decision.
Unquote.

So this is not written in stone but you can draw a conclusion that prices are going up. Many suppliers are holding prices on stocks but watch those stocks disappear! Here we go again.

 

[jason121]

/*FROM CRAFTENERGY CO.,LIMITED*/

As per the report, the anti-dumping regulation wasdecided by EU commission today.
The average tax rate would be around 47%, tax will befrom June 6th.

We are offering the last some modules which are all dutypaid and safe from anti-dumping tax.
please check out the sotck we have:

 

[Ian-LS]

On BBC and Solar Power Portal Now

 

[JJPJ]

anyone got any indications of the sort of price adjustments the UK market can expect now following yesterday's EU decision?

 

[Worcester]

We are seeing a wholesale / import immediate 10-12% increase os of this morning, and suppliers are refusing to give DDP (delivered duty paid) prices so duty is falling on the importer / purchaser.

 

[solarfred]

But if you agree to purchase at 11.8% duty in July and your container arrives in August you may end up with a 48% duty and it will be down to you as an importer. There is no leeway for shipments "on the water" so it is a massive gamble. The UK and EU governments are quite happy to stuff the importer without hesitation so I have no qualms about finding a different way. I think many exporters will simply re locate. You just need to know who is selling from where.

 

[Worcester]

Yep, however ther eis quite a lot of material already unsold 'on the water' in anticipation of this, so should be able to clear customs before 8th August.

 

[solarfred]

What I am not yet clear on is if the provisional duties are then racked up to full duties at the end of the final consultation period? I understood the duties imposed under registration are due to be paid at the end of the year once all the investigations have been completed and negotiations to decide if to formalise the duties or revoke them.

 

[Gavin A]

hmm, so I can see the dodgy gits with a string of bankrupt ltd companies behind them just setting up a ltd company to import the panels, selling these on to their install company to install, then bankrupting the import company when the duties bill lands on the door step.

maybe not such a bad plan tbh, and not something I'd have a moral issue with as these duties are not justified in any way, and tackling climate change is far more important a priority.

 

[whinmoor]

Is it the case that various manufacturers will be treated differently depending on whether they have "co-operated" with the "investigation"? If that's true, it could really shake up the market if, for example, Suntech are hit with 20% penalty but Trina with 60% (or vice versa). I'm sure I read somewhere that Yingli are getting off relatively lightly. Will our regular stockists will be switching brands so some panels could become unavailable which could be problematic for warranty purposes?

 

[whinmoor]

Here's the answer to my own question: EU import tariffs of up to 67.9% as of August: pv-magazine

The uniform tariff of 11.8% applies to all companies concerned until Aug. 5. If the EU and China fail to reach an agreement, however, provisional import duties of an average 47.6%, which may vary depending on the company, will go into effect from Aug. 6 to early December.

According to the EU regulation, companies that have supported EU investigations and that have lower dumping margins as well as lower injury margins for EU manufacturers will face lower duty rates.

As a result, Yingli faces an import duty rate of 37.3%; Jinzhou, a rate of 38.3%; Suntech 48.6%; Trina 51.5%; LDK 55.9%; JA Solar 58.7%; and Delsolar an import duty rate of 67.9%.

For some 130 other companies that have cooperated in the EU investigation and are listed in the regulation annex, a preliminary duty of 47.6% will apply from Aug. 6. All other affected companies that did not cooperate in the EU inquiry will face import duties of 67.9%.

 

[solarfred]

So the Germans wanted to kick the Chinese into touch to protect their wages and now the French will be kicked as their wine imports into China are going to be hit with duty hikes so the whole thing is blowing up as predicted. Meanwhile the solar kit will bypass the duties and suppliers and installers will have more undeserved hassle to support the green initiative in the UK. So Brussels should be really proud of themselves. Either they will back down or this will get nasty especially as China owns half the worlds debt and their banks may be a little rocky! It ain't over yet.