PV Panel prices going up soon?

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Energetic

Energetic

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We've spoken to a wholesaler yesterday who said things were beginning to creep upward now due to the weakness of the £sterling.

Are we at the bottom of the curve now? Couls we see another rush into the next tariff cut if coupled with rising prices?
 
We have already seen a price increase. I think there were some very good deals around while people cleared stock but now that is gone the price is going up.

Tom
 
There is certainly some extra pressure on prices at the moment. There were a lot of people clearing stock at below cost leading up to the New Year as pvman said, which seems to have slowed. Currently we have the Euro becoming stronger against the pound.

A bigger concern (depending on your point of view) is the potential for a big price increase because of anti dumping duties on Chinese modules.
 
I wrote a blog post on this a few days back (are the 2013 solar panel price rises starting?).

We noticed a 2-4% rise in panel prices between Dec 2012 - now from a range of manufacturers from our main supplier, and according to one price tracking website there's been an across the board increase in silicon spot prices the 2 weeks in a row that I've been checking it, including a 10% increase for the lowest grade poly silicon. I've no idea at this stage if this is just a blip and there might have been an equivalent reduction before Christmas etc, or if this is part of a general upward trend.

One things pretty much certain though, which is that prices have to rise at some point once the oversupply situation resolves itself (via companies going bust or pulling out of the market or reducing output, and bankrupt stock being cleared off the docks etc and demand increasing), as virtually all solar manufacturers have been operating at a significantly loss for most of the last 18 months, and those operating at a profit are working on absolutely minute margins. My guess would be in the region of a 10-20% relatively across the board rise in panel prices by the middle of this year if the oversupply situation has resolved itself... or manufacturers are confident that they've built sufficient market share to be able to sneak prices up, as I suspect Canadian Solar in particular are now doing.

My conclusion fwiw, is that the answer to the question of when's the best time to buy solar systems is NOW. Prices are almost certainly going to rise this year, and FIT rates will fall by August at the latest, so now really is going to be the very bottom of the market price IMO.
 
We tend to deal direct becasue of our volumes, the only reason we've seen for any chnage in pricing is the fact theat they work in Euros and Dollars.
We can almost exactly match the price changes against the £ / € vlaue changes.

As Spitfire says, any anti-dumping regulations / tariffs will have a much larger effect.
 
Worcester said:
We tend to deal direct becasue of our volumes, the only reason we've seen for any chnage in pricing is the fact theat they work in Euros and Dollars.
We can almost exactly match the price changes against the £ / € vlaue changes.
Click to expand...
yes, I did mean to mention that (have in the blog), it certainly could explain minor swings.

The overall picture this year though is that unless manufacturers are really able to cut their costs sufficiently to sustain these prices, then panel prices must rise so that the manufacturers can actually cover their operating costs. There's quite a lot of demand stimulation going on particularly in China which apparently accounted for 1/3 of global demand last quarter, up from 10% 2 years ago, and inventries are reported to be dropping (4% on average last quarter).

I could of course be wrong, there could remain enough companies willing to undercut anyone that does raise prices that the prices are forced to remain this low, or maybe they actually can reduce costs to a point where this price point works for them.

The other side of the issue is whether UK suppliers are going to have to raise their margins per panel due to the significantly reduced volumes - something's logically going to have to give if volumes remain so low relative to even the first quarter 2012, never mind last 2 quarters of 2011.
 
My information is the Chinese are imposing an import tax on the raw silicon material imported from USA and EU right now because we are going to impose anti dumping tax on the finished goods in June. Isn't free enterprise great. No matter how hard you negotiate to get a competitive and reliable supply line some politician will jump in and screw it up for you. Seems to be a regular occurrence. Not a problem if were not in the EU as it happens. I am already working on the basis there will be barriers across EU borders this year and acting accordingly. Interesting year coming up I reckon.
 
An update on the anti dumping proposals.
EU to impose mandatory registration of Chinese solar goods | Solar Power Portal

Once the decision to impose registration is made the duty will be imposed retroactively. Any company importing solar panels will have to build in the prospective duty increase whatever that may be or take the hit but in effect no new orders will be placed from now on. The decision to start the registration process will be implemented with virtually no notice so anyone caught with goods on the high seas will have a cost of possibly +80% to take into account. The decision will be made in June as to whether the duty increase will be imposed. The actual duty rates will not be known until the end of the year.
Of course nothing may happen at all but it has effectively closed the Chinese trade link for 3 months.
 
bloody great. 2 commercial jobs on the horizon. one needing planning permission, the other DNO approval (NPG!) both could be refused so i can't buy anything yet and when they get approved, there could be nothing to buy that has not been priced up to the hilt.

just as we breathed a sigh of relief that the FIT was being extended!
 
@SolarRoofSols, it's not all doom and gloom.

We have managed to secure current prices protected from the threat of any potential retrospective duty until end of April, after that they are still exempt from the threat, though may go up by 1 or 2 p /W. We may well have panels available for resale, though I am sure that the majority of wholesalers will have put similar arrangements in place. So if you see large price rises or the threat of retrospective duties, then those wholesalere aren't as much on tyhe ball as we are :)
 
just had a new price list from my supplier and prices have gone up, the available range meanwhile has gone down, it seems to be budget or nothing now!

price increase has cost me about £100.00 on a 3kW domestic job I have just signed on.
 
Quoted a job last Tuesday with panels at XXp/W, ordered kit on Friday with same panels at XX+1p/W and out of curiosity, checked panel prices again today to find them at XX+2p/W
 
The HMRC imposed the Registration notice effective midnight last night. Any goods not cleared from the warehouse by then will be subject to and liable for any duty imposed which may not be agreed until June but inference is it could be 70%. That should please the Germans.
 
solarfred said:
The HMRC imposed the Registration notice effective midnight last night. Any goods not cleared from the warehouse by then will be subject to and liable for any duty imposed which may not be agreed until June but inference is it could be 70%. That should please the Germans.
Click to expand...

A certain supplier has increased costs by as much as £20 per panel in a day. A 70 kW quote we did last week has no increased its price by £6,600
 
This applies only to any goods received through the point of entry after midnight last night. If suppliers are raising prices then that is effectively supply and demand economics working but there is a point where it becomes profiteering. The duty is based on the landed cost not the resale price. Your call!
 
Seems like it was actually published on March 1st !!!

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2013:061:0002:0005:EN:PDF

Here's where the 60-70% comes from:

(18) The allegations in the complaint requesting the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation estimate an average dumping margin of around 60-70 % and an underselling margin of up to 125 % for the product concerned. The estimated amount of possible future liability is set at the level of dumping estimated on the basis of the anti- dumping complaint, i.e. 60-70 % ad valorem on the CIF import value of the product concerned.
Click to expand...

and
(19) The allegations in the complaint requesting the initiation of an anti-subsidy investigation estimate the subsidisation margin of around 10-15 % and an underselling to represent of up to 125 % for the product concerned. The estimated amount of possible future liability is set at the level of subsidisation estimated on the basis of the anti-subsidy complaint, i.e. 10-15 % ad valorem on the CIF import value of the product concerned.
Click to expand...

If they do, then based on the methodology of the Strategic FiT Review, I don't see that they have any choice other than too put the FiT rate UP!!!
 
AFAICS that EU Regulation has only come in to force from today.

At the end it says:

This Regulation shall enter into force on the day following that of its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union
Click to expand...

And it was only published there 05/03/13 - yesterday: EUR-Lex - - EN
 
Ian-LS said:
A certain supplier has increased costs by as much as £20 per panel in a day. A 70 kW quote we did last week has no increased its price by £6,600
Click to expand...

Same hear, though ours is a 10kW. Originally quoted in November, requoted end of Jan as the customer was still thinking about it but had flooding on this farm so needed to divert his attentions to that. Came back to me last night to say he wants to go ahead - checked this morning on the prices and whadya know - £15 more per panel!
 
SolarRoofSols said:
Same hear, though ours is a 10kW. Originally quoted in November, requoted end of Jan as the customer was still thinking about it but had flooding on this farm so needed to divert his attentions to that. Came back to me last night to say he wants to go ahead - checked this morning on the prices and whadya know - £15 more per panel!
Click to expand...

Fortunately we also quoted for Romag panels which haven't changed price at all. Currently looking at all other options as we can't work not knowing what the panel price will be in two days time never mind a months time.
 
OK time NOT to be ripped off.

We have our legal team working on this right now. And we have access to panels that have already cleared customs (they did it in a rush earlier this week)

Anyone rasing prices now is like they did back in November 2011 - rippping people off.
 
Worcester said:
OK time NOT to be ripped off.

We have our legal team working on this right now. And we have access to panels that have already cleared customs (they did it in a rush earlier this week)

Anyone rasing prices now is like they did back in November 2011 - rippping people off.
Click to expand...

Indeed, panels that are already in stock with suppliers should have no price rise, which has happened quite a number of times recently
 
tbf, there can be justification for raising prices of panels in stock where the price rise is down to the exchange rate, as if the supplier is paying in Euros on 30 / 60 / 90 day invoicing terms, then they'll need to be paying for the panels at the Euro exchange rate now rather than when the panels were imported.

No excuse for raising the prices based on the import duty though for panels already in the UK.
 
If they have sensible stocks, then I can gaurantee that they AREN'T on those kinds if terms - they will already be paid for (even the likes of segen don't get credit on panels from the manufacturers) as the VAT needs to be paid when they come out of bond. If they aren't out of bond by now then they will be liable for whatever duty is payable.

I am meeting with a number of the wholesalers tomorrow at ecobuild and will find out just what games they are playing, as I've said elsewhere we have protected our position on panel prices, by securing supplies for the next three months to take us past June, they are mid range poly's and mono's (240/250W). If we have spare capacity (we did buy a lot :) ) then will happily offer them to forum members at sensible 'pre-duty' prices. - We won't know until the end of next week what kind of spare capacity we have. PM me if you might want to be one of those. No promises
 
Worcester said:
(even the likes of segen don't get credit on panels from the manufacturers)
Click to expand...

pretty sure you're wrong on this, and that most if not all big suppliers get the majority of their stock on credit from the manufacturers - that's certainly what I've been told on several occasions by several suppliers and I can't see why you'd think it would be any other way.
 
I know the way they work, and it may look like credit terms to others. What it may mean is that they start to impose higher prices effective immediately.
 
We were just starting to see some green shoots with spring approaching, lots of interest hard work to nurture along to an order.

Waiting on G59 enquires etc and now his out of the blue . Struggling to find stock for the jobs which are ongoing at the right price now.



What a nightmare again ! just when consumer confidence was starting to grow again
 
General opinion seems to be that retrospective implementation is unlikely to happen unless maybe for goods in bonded stock at the moment the decision is made (December?).

Agree that there are fewer exhibitors this year, and definitely a strong focus on GD but PV activity/discussions have been active and positive too (granted, uncertainty over Chinese import duties and VAT situation is not to be taken lightly) - we've been inundated today and yesterday, my feet are dead and throat is sore!
 
Worcester said:
If they have sensible stocks, then I can gaurantee that they AREN'T on those kinds if terms - they will already be paid for (even the likes of segen don't get credit on panels from the manufacturers) as the VAT needs to be paid when they come out of bond. If they aren't out of bond by now then they will be liable for whatever duty is payable.

I am meeting with a number of the wholesalers tomorrow at ecobuild and will find out just what games they are playing, as I've said elsewhere we have protected our position on panel prices, by securing supplies for the next three months to take us past June, they are mid range poly's and mono's (240/250W). If we have spare capacity (we did buy a lot :) ) then will happily offer them to forum members at sensible 'pre-duty' prices. - We won't know until the end of next week what kind of spare capacity we have. PM me if you might want to be one of those. No promises
Click to expand...

Wholesalers do get credit from manufacturers, provided they are credit worthy of course. Segen will have a large limit with those they deal with. Not sure why you think they wouldn't?
 
Any panels not paid for and customs cleared from bonded warehouse by now will be liable to EU duty if it gets imposed in June. Very likely, but it could be 20-85%. All stock on the waters or in production will be hit. All stock coming in from Europe not customs cleared will also be hit.

Most stock has been purchased by European countries, not just UK. UK is a small market compared to other European countries. well informed companies purchased the bonded stock this week from Europe. No names mentioned but a few are just going with the flow and increasing prices. The Chinese new year at the end of February meant no production was made or sent and it won't be likely that stock will hit Europe again until April and that will all be liable to EU duty.

Just a pity for existing quotes done for customers in the last few weeks.

We have limited stock for our regular customers and are trying to get more in at reasonable prices but the Euro conversion isn't helping having reached a yearly low.

On the bright side, the sun should be out soon....:yes:
 
Triplesolar said:
Any panels not paid for and customs cleared from bonded warehouse by now will be liable to EU duty if it gets imposed in June. Very likely, but it could be 20-85%. All stock on the waters or in production will be hit. All stock coming in from Europe not customs cleared will also be hit.

Most stock has been purchased by European countries, not just UK. UK is a small market compared to other European countries. well informed companies purchased the bonded stock this week from Europe. No names mentioned but a few are just going with the flow and increasing prices. The Chinese new year at the end of February meant no production was made or sent and it won't be likely that stock will hit Europe again until April and that will all be liable to EU duty.
Click to expand...

Exactly - so there either wont be any Chinese modules available soon or their price will go up. Also, manufacturers might start offering CIF/DAP prices instead of DDP, therefore moving liability for duties on to distributors.

I've heard that some manufacturers might still offer DDP terms but they will increase prices by 5-15% extra.

Maybe it is a good time to start looking towards European suppliers - some can offer prices starting at 0.58 eurocents, what is not that bad considering that one would not have to worry about unknown level of duties.
 
So lets review the situation starting to take shape:

1. Suppliers putting up price on existing stocks
2. No immediate deliveries of Chinese modules

What do you think will happen to the prices of eu made modules? Yes they will go up!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the FIT cuts were due to material prices dropping, can you see the FIT being reviewed? No, neither can I.

So customer payback periods increase, solar installs slow up, industry slows down even more than it already has, firms go pop, people lose jobs.
 
Jaycee said:
So lets review the situation starting to take shape:

1. Suppliers putting up price on existing stocks
2. No immediate deliveries of Chinese modules

What do you think will happen to the prices of eu made modules? Yes they will go up!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the FIT cuts were due to material prices dropping, can you see the FIT being reviewed? No, neither can I.

So customer payback periods increase, solar installs slow up, industry slows down even more than it already has, firms go pop, people lose jobs.
Click to expand...

i've had verbal confirmation that korean hyundai and LG panels are not expected to increase on price over next few months. Although if this changes our trade bodies need to be on deccs case to increase the feed in tariff. Theyd have direct access to costs if theyd stipulated what installers were supposed to put on the MCS cert for costs. Yet we are all putting £0.00 as again those at the top haven't thought things through properly
 
Jaycee said:
What do you think will happen to the prices of eu made modules? Yes they will go up!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but the FIT cuts were due to material prices dropping, can you see the FIT being reviewed? No, neither can I.
.
Click to expand...

Not necessary - as for now 80% of modules installed in UK are Chinese. Most of European manufacturers were unable to secure enough market in UK. So they might see this as a chance to compete and increase their sale in UK. Even if this will be only short term - still, money is money.
How much more you can pay for modules and still make money? 15%?20%? Even at current level EU modules are at least 15% dearer then Chinese.
All that have to add up.

FIT - FIT is also related to level of installations so..I would be far from panicking.

PS. Open letter to the EU Commissioner for Trade | AFASE
 
Of the whole time at Eco-build, 6 hours was soent in discussions with panel manufacturers.

Bottom lines,
1) Some have no stock for sale in Europe, and aren't planning to ship anymore till they know the situation in June.
2) a) Some sold out all their stock before 5th March to large wholesalers at the normal price as they wanted shot of the stock.
b) Those wholsalers that committed ther ££ are putting up prices on stock bought at the low prices due to 'supply and demand'
3) Some have alternative supply lines manufacturing in Taiwan, Canadia, Rumania, Malaysia, etc these stocks are currently being shipped to the EU, expect a 2 - 4p price / W increase over February prices. - Also product won't be here till end April.
4) Some are prepared to weather the storm and have set up companies in the EU which will clear the stock from customs and sell on at prices as in 3) above they will cover the risk of retrospective duties. These companies may take about 4 weks to set up, and they will decided wether to continue to run the risk after June or pullout - they have other worlwide miarkets.

So
A) If you need / must have panels today - you'll pay a premuim price from the Wolesalers
B) If you can schedule those projects for 4 - 6 weeks away you'll get better prices.
 
Anyone have any inputs on point 4 above (supplies via new companies being set up)? Whoever imports the panels into the EU must pay the duty, wherever they are. It sounds questionable that any company would be willing to cover the risk of duties, it's a huge gamble. I'd be very wary of buying through such companies, all the more so if they're only being set up now ad-hoc. My guess is they're fly by night operators who'll disappear when it comes to settling the duties (perhaps locating in jurisdictions that the legal process takes time to reach), be careful the t&c's don't leave you liable, customs & excise will be looking for someone to pick up the tab that's for sure.
 
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