Future for installers

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What your prediciton for the next 12 mths !


NOW - DEC 11 - BUSY
JAN - NOTHING
FEB - NOTHING
March - slowly start seling again
APRIL- NOV 2012 - back to business

MY VIEW ABOVE WHAT YOURS?
 
The future looks bleaker as, post April, all buildings will need to meet the EPC C level to qualify for the 21p rate. If they fail that they only get 9p.

DECC assess that 86% of properties will need upgrading to meet that. They will have 12 months grace period in order to comply.

This is a trick to try to get the Green Deal off the ground. Without it the Green Deal was looking like a dead duck.
 
95% of installers will go under after dec, the rest will follow within the following 2-3 months, this will KILL UK solar PV dead.

John
 
You need a bit more than an few extra inches of loft insulation to get the average house to EPC C.

Whilst it is free to certain households on benefits they are not generally the ones buying PV and B&Q don't exactly give it away either.
 
If you study the document I get the feeling that those who miss out will looka at installing BEFOR Apr 12. I envisage nothing while people wait for prices to bottom out in Jan, Feb and March. There will be a smaller rush in March to fit to older properties that have no chance of getting a C rating, and those that will cost a lot. I therefore thing beating the "C" rating wil be out next key selling point, but Im still not sure of renewing with REA which is due now-Jan for everyone, so shal wait and see....
 
TedM said:
You need a bit more than an few extra inches of loft insulation to get the average house to EPC C.

Whilst it is free to certain households on benefits they are not generally the ones buying PV and B&Q don't exactly give it away either.
Click to expand...

TedM, Do you know the key issues with the Green Deal or where I can find them out?
 
I'm pessimistic. The industry won't die but I'd definitely agree that most firms will pack it in.

As soon as I hear a good argument as to why someone will have a system installed with a 14-16 year payback - AFTER spending money getting their home EPC C rated - then I will be very happy.
 
Having spoken to a number of installers today I'm staggered that some think the glass is half full, they're are the ones that have ignored the energy efficency requirements.

A cynic might think that the insulation/pv installation companies have had a hand in this somewhere, they have proved to good at lobbying in their best interest in the past :-(
 
I passed my MCS today with only one non conformity (that I corrected before he left).........I carn`t stop laughing at the irony......either that or its my nerves again, the kind I get at funerals.
 
I can't see Green Deal working. I don't know if I'm missing something but why would you replace a boiler using a green deal loan cos you're skint and repay it and interest out of the savings you make each year? Year one is great because you feel the financial benefit of the better boiler but by the time you've had 2 price rises from the utilities that benefit has been wiped out. Yes your bill might be slightly less than next door who hasn't done the same as you but you're still going to be paying more for your fuel bills.

What happens when you come to sell your house? By the way there's an outstanding loan of 5k on it because I had double glazing and a new boiler installed - I didn't pay for them but you will through your energy bills.

I just don't get it and I can't possibly see how it's going to help the pv industry. We have a 60's bungalow, cavity wall, 250mm of loft insulation trv's boiler less than 5 years old and we're still only a D rated house - no amount of Green Deal loans are going to help me.
 
We live in a modern (90s) house and have cavity wall, double glazing and insulation coming out of our ears and we only rate a D. For us to rate C I suspect we would need a condensing boiler installed which would

a) cost a lot
b) break down c.10 year mark and need replacing

That means for us to get to a C rating is completely uneconomic. And that's on a modern house - any older and the costs to achieve C far, far outweigh any potential benefits from a 21p FIT and energy savings.
 
Mybe I'm just feeling a bit pessimistic at the moment but I certainly cant see me renewing our MCS. I didnt get any finance and started the company new, not an add on to an existing electrical contractors. I set up on the cheap after working in PV for years and setting up one of the bigger installation companies that were previously roofers (and got shafted in the process)
Its been a slow burn since then, grafting away to get to the point where i finally thought I would have a life again and be earning money rather than just paying to get over the next hurdle.
The thought of doing it again next year... Nah, I might become more optimistic in a while but right now I'm regretting the whole thing and I think if I'd just have gone on a year long bender I'd be in a better position than I am now. Would have had more fun anyway.

Right now its like someone popped their head round the corner and said "SURPRISE! You have a month to sort your crap out and then you're done"
 
When I was a child, I was always told not to put all my eggs in one basket.

So what do most people do with their income?

We run a renewable energy business, not a solar PV installation company, that is just one of the things we do.

Time to really think about who you are, and what you do.

Our company has a great future ahead of it, and we have all known since August that a massive cut was coming. If you follow my comments on various threads, you'll see that I've been saying it since June, and we've been planning for it since June, it seems that a lot of people have been in denial.

Yes it's harsh, and the get rich quick and badly managed installers will go bump, those that have managed their businesses well will continue to thrive even without PV.

We shall be renewing REAL and MCS.
 
I'm pleased for you Gordon but not everyone is in the same boat and not always through being short sighted. We're lucky, we had a goal of becoming mortgage free, then having a stash for survival funds and we were just about to sort out pensions. We won't go under because of solar but it will be a while before we'll have time to re-think direction.

At the moment every waking hour is concerned with making hay while the sun shines and if I haven't collapsed with exhaustion our new beginnings will be planned in the New Year. I feel for those who just haven't managed to get over that financial hurdle of set up and vat and who are small, like us - good luck, I think you may need it. It could have been us 6 months ago and I'm grateful it isn't.
 
Now you all listen here... we have just not got it right we are all low life money grabbers on a gravy train..

Quote..


  • no-user-image.gif
    PloughcroftSolar 31 October 2011 6:20PM

    “Companies that have entered the solar industry purely to join in the solar gold rush which use unethical sales practice and are unethical and unsustainable. The current FIT makes it too good to be true for them, and the proposed lower FIT rate will mean they cease to exist. Long-term, this is good for the industry as we need companies who are committed to the renewable cause.”
    Chris Hopkins, Ploughcroft Solar MD

    I am quite insulted.

 
I'm not particularly suprised though - he hardly put up a good argument on Dragon's Den did he and even with their support he's hardly articulate is he, so how could he understand the sentiments of decent installers!!
 
I live in a rural area where most houses will be well over 50 years old. No chance of getting Grade C around here.

How stupid and short-sighted to limit only newer houses to having a cat in hells chance of getting PV when its the older houses that would benefit them most. Try reducing the carbon footprint as much by spending the same money on a typical 150 year old dales farmhouse! It would cost you 10k just insulate the 3ft thick walls and you would lose 4" of the internal measurements of every room!
 
We're in the same boat - I guess if you had an optimistic head on you might argue this in the consultation .... but tbh I can't see how I can do a quality job at 9k to make it attractive to customers.

What seems really ironic is that the decent brands of panels will be too expensive, European brands will be too expensive so we'll all be buying in Chinese panels helping them on their way to Superpowerdom!!
 
i think that the potential customers are going to be stagnant for a little while as the new pricing structure sinks in. I think its rather like a house that you get told is worth 300k then when you come to sell it it goes on the market for 275k ! you think you have lost 25k when in reality you never had it in the first place.

The PV will be much the same, as people will still get a return on their investment albeit extended by a further 6-7 years, but how many home improvements actually pay for themselves over time?

The price of electricity will only increase, yes you wont be able to sell as readily as we have before, but ultimately people will come rounf to buying again.

Those companies without any other revenue streams are going to suffer the most, but ultimately there is still a good PV market albeit we are going to have to work that bit harder to sell it, and we wont be able to kick each other in the nuts and keep dropping the prices!
 
I am amazed at how many people are still failing to understand the full impact of the upcoming reduction and new rules for access to FITs. There is no getting around that a 21p rate has effectively turned solar from a very attractive investment to a hard sale. Yes some people argue a PV system will still provide you with a 5% ROI but for a non-mobile investment...and that is providing your home meets the required energy efficiency parameters...

In other countries people would throw themselves to the streeets to fiercely campaign against DECC's decision, in the UK we just allow the Government to sh*ft us and accept fate. Very sad days ahead for many PV businesses and redundancies looming for many families. I just wish politicians stopped playing with our lives and behaved in a more rsponsible manner :13:
 
The problem with the idea of a 4%-5% investment is that they are comparing it to current interest rates.

Of course, most people would hope that interest rates would recover over the next few years whereas the money that has been invested in solar PV will be locked into it forever.
 
It is all about risk and return and the new FITs translate into a much less attractive investment vehicle for end users. As installers our audience will now be reduced significantly so there won't be enough room for 4000 companies. Some will survive but the good old times are now well over...perhaps the Government will realise in a few months about their mistake when the queues continue to grow at the Job Centres...
 
We shot ourselves in the foot a while ago. Every new entrant feels the need to offer reduced prices! The arrival of a 4kWp system for sub £10k really was the killer!

The government must have took one look at that and said right thats a 30% drop in twelve months people really are making too great a return on investment lets cut the FIT rate.

Lets resist the temptation to try to offer our customers plus 10% return on their investment this time or the FIT rate will be cut again! The consumer really has had a fantastic deal whilst our margins have dropped and now were left with all the costs associated with running our business.

We will survive as we are a renewables company but you do wonder where the government will strike next. No RHI perhaps?

I guess the majority of companies are not cowboys(I hate that term) and strive to deliver the best quality installation they can. However against the background of internet chatter where potential customers try to talk us into delivering a £10K 4kWp as standard and we as idiots trying to impress give it them doesnt really make a good sustainable business model. There are better margins to be earned in other areas of the building trade which shouldnt be the case when we are delivering an emerging technology in the UK. None of those customers that you did an install for at sub 20% gpm are going to mourn the cutting of the FIT but you sadly will!
 
I agree the sub £10k was totally unnecesary it really has devalued the market place. Some companies have relyed on cutting prices to the bone where it just wasnt necesary.

A proper job demands a proper price - if you go below that price then something has to give either workmanship or materials.

Due to the amount of legislation and red tape - there is no room to cut the prices and work for mere wages.

Hopefully now the whole industry will realign and get back to a proper amount of work.
 
Worcester said:
When I was a child, I was always told not to put all my eggs in one basket.

So what do most people do with their income?

We run a renewable energy business, not a solar PV installation company, that is just one of the things we do.

Time to really think about who you are, and what you do.

Our company has a great future ahead of it, and we have all known since August that a massive cut was coming. If you follow my comments on various threads, you'll see that I've been saying it since June, and we've been planning for it since June, it seems that a lot of people have been in denial.

Yes it's harsh, and the get rich quick and badly managed installers will go bump, those that have managed their businesses well will continue to thrive even without PV.

We shall be renewing REAL and MCS.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with you. Unfortunately what you describe does not come over night. Especially without financial backing.
I wouldnt put us in either the get rich quick or or the badly run businesses though- I'd put us in the most vulnerable catergory- the business that was just finding its feet. I dont think ts a case of denial for a lot of folks, just lack of abiltiy to take things to that next level- stability. 6 months to a year further along and things might have been different but right now I think a lot of good companies have just been strangled at birth.

The ploughcroft comment has made me feel rather bitter about the whole thing and I'm tempted to just say "sod it, I dont want to be a part of this anymore" But reading your post last night has made me begin thinking long and hard about what it is I am and where I go from here.
 
Hello
Paul from complete picture here. As we do sap software I agree with the posters here that the real problem is the requirement for C rated performance certificate. This is a big deal as this really limits the marketplace and if this requirement remains the number of installations will definitely drop.

The strange thing is PV that it is a generation technology so I don't understand why it's related to the heating efficiency of the house. It's in direct contrast to solar thermal where you are creating heat whilst at the same time losing heat through the building. Therefore I can see the rationale of the Green deal and renewable heat initiative requiring insulation alongside the renewable technology.

In the case of PV makes no difference you are generating electricity not heat and electricity from power stations is generally not used to heating.

This is apparently a consultation document I will be writing to request the removal of the C rating requirement as in my view that is very bad news.

The tariff reduction was not welcome is probably fair if they're going to stick within the budget and that will be up to the industry to work with it.

I think it would help everybody in the industry if we were to write to our MPs regarding the energy rating issue. I will be sending my letter off today.

Regards
Paul
 
The energy efficiency aspect is not just tied into the heating element of a homes efficiency. It takes into account lighting and electrical appliance energy ratings. That said I believe it is nothing more than a kick start to the ill thought out Green Deal that they are so precious about.
I'm a heating installer who is now shrugging off any venture into the renewable market (after Ive invested a lot of money into training and MCS & REAL) as this government has shown their true colours and it certainly isn't Green! Solar PV is now dead, Solar Thermal is inefficient in terms of payback, Air source heat pumps and Biomass are not considered "green enough" to be considered for RHI, so we're left with Groundsource which is expensive to install amd Wind which in my own opinion is far from reliable.
For reasons best known to themselves the people in charge are bulldozing change through and labelling it as green in order to do so. If I were suspicious then I would be looking into energy & insulation companies and suppliers who stand to make a lot of money out of fitting energy saving lamps & insulation products as part of a "new" government initiative.
There wouldn't happen to be anyone in government who are on the board of these companies would there?...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
this bunch of clowns supposedly running the country make that old witch thatcher seem reasonable n level headed.i wonder which of these muppets is an non exec on the board of sse, scottish power etc etc.
correct me if i am wrong but was it not the utility companies that paid the feed in money and not the government?the same utility companies that are building a £275 million pound wind farm about 10 miles from my house.Also the renewable part of the utility company is based in ireland probably for the low corporation tax as well
makes you proud to be british eh?
 
duncs535 said:
i think that the potential customers are going to be stagnant for a little while as the new pricing structure sinks in. I think its rather like a house that you get told is worth 300k then when you come to sell it it goes on the market for 275k ! you think you have lost 25k when in reality you never had it in the first place.

The PV will be much the same, as people will still get a return on their investment albeit extended by a further 6-7 years, but how many home improvements actually pay for themselves over time?

The price of electricity will only increase, yes you wont be able to sell as readily as we have before, but ultimately people will come rounf to buying again.

Those companies without any other revenue streams are going to suffer the most, but ultimately there is still a good PV market albeit we are going to have to work that bit harder to sell it, and we wont be able to kick each other in the nuts and keep dropping the prices!
Click to expand...

I only wish that this were the case but I'm afraid I can't agree. Basically you will still gt business from rich people with money to spend but the average previous majority will not spend their savings for the 2 very good reasons that we simply can't get away from.

Firstly, to get most houses to Level C will cost - sometimes massively to the average person putting PV out of the question, and,

Secondly, the rate of return to break even will be much longer - longer than many older people will live for to be honest - and they would be better served as pensioners by investing their money in bonds where they can get their hands on it. Younger people would be better investing it in their growing families. I'm afraid the announcement is very very serious to the future of PV for the average person and what is still requested will be nowhere near enough to keep people employed. Very sad days coming up for many people I feel. I am one of the lucky ones having installed 2 weeks ago but there would be more chance of me visiting the moon than there would have been in me investing in PV post April 2012.

To all you genuine (most) installers out there I wish the very best. Try and get your business planning hats on as much as you can cos you have some big decisions to make. Good luck to you all.
 

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