Solar PV Sales

[babba]

The 19% ROI will be due to generous assumptions in the rate of inflation and energy price increases. Easy to whack in an assumption of 15% p.a. energy price increases (and get away with it because of the recent steep rises in the cost of our bills). The higher the rate of inflation, the faster the inflation-linked FiT will rise, and, the faster the inflation the more expensive electricity prices would become and therefore the more in-house savings which could be made by not having to import as much from the grid.

My rough 'n' ready calculation for a 4kWp/£12000 system suggests:
@43p FiT = 13.5% annual rate of return, but, of course, none of the original capital will ever be returned (it will be a near-worthless/depreciated asset), unlike most ISA's/bank accounts.
@21p FiT = 7.8% annual rate of return, but capital is not returned.

So with the "write-off" of the original outlay, the 43p FiT drops to 5% p.a. annual *real* return (i.e. return stripping out the effect of inflation).
The 21p FiT drops to 3% p.a. annual *real* return.

Then add on-top whatever you think the inflation rate will be (e.g. 4% inflation/RPI would make 9% ROI for 43p FiT and 7% ROI for 21p FiT).

The returns might lose another 1% p.a. if the inverter has a meltdown a couple of years after its warranty has expired; certainly it is very possible that the system will need a replacement inverter in the 25-year lifespan and potentially might need two new inverters over the government's 35-year assumed lifespan.

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So it was you...call the police and give yourself up..

 

[finchy]

I fancy going in to double glazing, they seem to compliment each other !

 

[Eco Deal]

Might get a bit of flack for this but want to reiterate the point that there are some good sales people who don't go out to rip people off but have a real passion for this.

Me for instance.

I'm not an electrician, I like business, I like selling to people and I believe in what I'm selling.

I run my own small solar company, I employ 2 Engineers, I pay my taxes etc and I earn a good living.

We became a limited company in 2009 having traded as a sole trader for a few years previous.

The economy needs salespeople as much as industry needs people to sell stuff for them.

Not everyone can sell, I certainly couldn't wire up a PV system.

The people that are ripping people off I hope are few and far between, I certainly haven't come across many 'really' bad ones and the green media industry are trying to spread the word to avoid them.

How many of you guys are ready to move your 'green' business forward?

Mass PV has gone for the time being- far too many other companies doing it now.

Got to diversify

am I mis reading this you own a solar pv company but dont know how to install/wire a system?

fogive me if I am wrong .

 

[Somecamel]

You are correct. Well I couldn't do the AC connection.

I would hazard a guess I was selling pv before a lot of you guys started doing it.

I'm not alone in this, it's not only electricians that are allowed to sell PV you know

 

[FB.]

So it was you...call the police and give yourself up..

I'm too honest, I'm afraid.
I tell people what they need to know, not what they want to hear.

My honest estimate of the *real* returns, over the 25-year FiT period, from a 4kW PV, would be 4.5% from the 43p FiT and 2.5% from the 21p FiT.
Stockmarkets have historically managed about 5% *real* over long periods of time, while bonds managed about 1% *real* and cash manages 0% real (i.e. cash, even with interest added, only just about holds its ability to buy what it did the day it was squirrelled away).

Then make a best guess as to what inflation will be and add that on top of the *real* return - but remember that gains made from inflation will be offset by the loss of buying power of the money.
Historically, inflation in the UK has averaged about 5% p.a. in the last 25-30 years, so it would be reasonable to add that to the rates of return mentioned above.

43p FiT = 4.5% *real*, 9.5% nominal, p.a.
21p FiT = 2.5% *real*, 7.5% nominal, p.a.

 

[The Solar King]

Your figures do not accord to the Net Present Value (discounted cash flow model) in PVSOL. If you set inflation rates to 3% and use 8% for energy costs, (this is based on DECC data since 2000), the results are realistic and make installations viable. I also build in £50.00pa for inverter failure.

Are your figures provided by the big six and the nuclear lobby?

 

[moggy1968]

I'm too honest, I'm afraid.
I tell people what they need to know, not what they want to hear.

My honest estimate of the *real* returns, over the 25-year FiT period, from a 4kW PV, would be 4.5% from the 43p FiT and 2.5% from the 21p FiT.
Stockmarkets have historically managed about 5% *real* over long periods of time, while bonds managed about 1% *real* and cash manages 0% real (i.e. cash, even with interest added, only just about holds its ability to buy what it did the day it was squirrelled away).

Then make a best guess as to what inflation will be and add that on top of the *real* return - but remember that gains made from inflation will be offset by the loss of buying power of the money.
Historically, inflation in the UK has averaged about 5% p.a. in the last 25-30 years, so it would be reasonable to add that to the rates of return mentioned above.

43p FiT = 4.5% *real*, 9.5% nominal, p.a.
21p FiT = 2.5% *real*, 7.5% nominal, p.a.

jeeeezzzz, how much are you charging!
for 43.3p At 3% inflation, just 8% fuel inflation and just10p per unit electricity cost I get 22% annualised over the 25 years, and thats at last novembers prices!!

 

[FB.]

jeeeezzzz, how much are you charging!
for 43.3p At 3% inflation, just 8% fuel inflation and just10p per unit electricity cost I get 22% annualised over the 25 years, and thats at last novembers prices!!

Have you taken into account that the money spent on the panels will never be recovered, unlike if the money was put into the bank?

How can you be certain that energy price inflation will be greater than RPI inflation? Wouldn't it be fairer to assume that both will be similar?

In today's money terms, a 4kWp system might be as follows:

£11000 installation cost.
3200kWh generation per year.
£1386 FiT payment (£672 if 21p)
£50 export payment.
£216 savings on annual electricity bill, assuming 50% of generated power is used.

£1386 + £50 + £216 = £1652 p.a. of annual gains (excluding provisions for a new inverter and labour charge after about 15 years)

or, if 21p FiT: £672 + £50 + £216 = £938 p.a.

£1652 x 25 years = £41300 of earnings (43p FiT).
£938 x 25 years = £23450 of earnings (21p FiT).


Turning £11000, with 43p FiT, into £41300 is a 5.4% rate of return (excluding any repairs).
Turning £11000, with 21p FiT, into £23450 is 3.0% annual rate of return (excluding any repairs).

 

[Somecamel]

A 4kw system isn't 11k anymore

 

[FB.]

Why do I keep referring to today's money terms, or *real* returns and not get involved with inflation-adjusted nominal numbers?

Because if you were to put, under the mattress, enough money to buy a new motorbike; you would be lucky to have enough to buy a new pedal cycle in 25 years time.

 

[moggy1968]

I don't think anyone seriously beleieves that electricity price rises will be in line with inflation. I would judge 8% as a conservative figure. The installation is paid for after 5 1/2 years on my calcs, everything after that is profit.and thats on SAP which is pessimistic (real life experience suggests values up to 30% higher than those calculated on SAP).

It isn't dead money, it has a value. All the experience from germany is that a PV system adds value to a property. Obviously this value will dimish over time but I really can't agree with your figures.

If you put your money in a savings account or high street ISSA you won't be able to buy your motorbike either!! If, however your matress index liked your money you would still be able to buy your motorbike. No other savings you can invest in is index linked, Solar is the best return you can get, by miles. Your investment will only go up and never go down, have you ever heard that for any other investment?

 

[FB.]

A 4kw system isn't 11k anymore

I chose £11000 because the post to which I was replying mentioned a 22% return on last year's prices - but let's call it £8500, to make it look as attractive as possible.

Re-run the numbers:
Have you taken into account that the money spent on the panels will never be recovered, unlike if the money was put into the bank?

How can you be certain that energy price inflation will be greater than RPI inflation? Wouldn't it be fairer to assume that both will be similar?

In today's money terms, a 4kWp system might be as follows:

£8500 installation cost.
3200kWh generation per year.
£1386 FiT payment (£672 if 21p)
£50 export payment.
£216 savings on annual electricity bill, assuming 50% of generated power is used.

£1386 + £50 + £216 = £1652 p.a. of annual gains (excluding provisions for a new inverter and labour charge after about 15 years)

or, if 21p FiT: £672 + £50 + £216 = £938 p.a.

£1652 x 25 years = £41300 of earnings (43p FiT).
£938 x 25 years = £23450 of earnings (21p FiT).


Turning £8500, with 43p FiT, into £41300 is a 6.5% rate of return (excluding any repairs).
Turning £8500, with 21p FiT, into £23450 is 4.1% annual rate of return (excluding any repairs).

 

[moggy1968]

I would refer you to my post above on all your points!!
maybe you should apply for the job as a salesman, your really selling it to me!
Makes me wonder why you ever got involved in the industry if it's such a dead duck!!!
even if I remove the initial purchase price (I allowed £10990) and assume nothing for increases in fits due to rpi it comes out at £880 a year annualised over the lifetime of the system, which is about 8%, but clearly thats nonsence because you do get rpi related increases and these have to be taken into account to give a realistic figure of expected returns.

 

[FB.]

I don't think anyone seriously beleieves that electricity price rises will be in line with inflation. I would judge 8% as a conservative figure.

What about if our current economic recession (depression?) lasts for another ten or more years - like Japan after their bubble burst?
What would be the demand for power from businesses, or cash-strapped (unemployed) consumers?
What about the drive for ever-more-efficient appliances?
What about downward pressure on electriicty prices if we have a mass roll-out of nuclear power? Nuclear has a lower generation cost per kW than gas, oil or coal.

If there happened to be less demand for electricity, or an abundance of cheap supply, why shouldn't prices theoretically come down? Supply and demand, no?

In life, I've learned that just as we assume that the past (good or bad) will continue into the future, suddenly everything changes.

 

[FB.]

Makes me wonder why you ever got involved in the industry if ity's such a dead duck!!!

I'm a scientist.

 

[moggy1968]

that doesn't answer the question, being a scientist isn't a reason to get into selling PV
This coutry currently has a serious energy deficit, meaning we have to import electricity and we have power outages in industrial high energy users. Our coal fired power stations are nearing end of life. Our nuclear power stations are nearing end of life. The world resources are diminishing. Energy is becoming a scarce resource, which means prices will rise. Even if your slightly odd fantasy world we do have over production the monopoly of the energy companies means they can maintain high prices to keep their profits going up and their shareholders happy.
recession or not, prices will rise, they will rise above inflation and anyone suggesting otherwise has, to be honest either lost the plot or has an extraordinarilly poor concept of basic economics!

 

[FB.]

that doesn't answer the question, being a scientist isn't a reason to get into selling PV
.
recession or not, prices will rise, they will rise above inflation and anyone suggesting otherwise has, to be honest either lost the plot or has an extraordinarilly poor concept of basic economics!

I am not a seller of PV, nor do I intend to get into the PV industry in the forseeable future; I am early-retired scientist who made most of his early retirement possible by spending spare time as a financial speculator - usually by taking the side of the trade which nobody else wanted. My concept of economics is sound.

Nuclear is fairly cheap - although not green. But you only have to look at Europe and the UK's slashing of FiT's in recent weeks to see that being green soon gets thrown out the window when the costs start to mount up in tough times. The big energy companies are queuing up to build nuclear stations (which will take several years), if only the government will clarify the rules of the game.

Here's a chart of US retail electricity prices (not UK, but it shows my point):
Electricity+Prices+History.jpg (image)

What's to say that - just as the sharply-rising fuel costs of the 1970's gave way to the stability of the 1980's and 1990's - that we perhaps aren't too far away from another period of stabilising prices?
In the 1950's, 60's, 80's and 90's, electricity prices didn't run away at much higher rates than general inflation - and in some years electricity prices went up less than general inflation.

The 2006 spike preceded the banking and economic crisis - just as the 1973 spike also preceded a banking and economic crisis. The connection? Interest rates too low for too long, causing bubbles in everything that speculators could lay their hands on, using borrowed money. Probably, as in 1980 (which was a few years after the 1974 meltdown), we're soon to see another spike and then it might well become a downtrend or stability for another 10-20 years. Oil plummeted from $50 in 1980 to $10 by the millenium as high prices in the 1970's brought huge investment (and ultimately overcapacity which crushed prices).

But who, in the troubled times of the late 1970's, would have believed that within several years, the soaring energy prices would give way to stabilty.

Anyway....I'll avoid taking this topic any further off-track and we'll have to agree to disagree on this one. :45:

 

[moggy1968]

As this is the solar installation section of an electricians forum, as against a general forum for all comers or for financial advice or speculators that would seem like a good idea.

 

[Gavin A]

What's to say that - just as the sharply-rising fuel costs of the 1970's gave way to the stability of the 1980's and 1990's - that we perhaps aren't too far away from another period of stabilising prices?

The inevitable ongoing decline in North Sea gas output, increased reliance on more expensive LNG imports, and the vast majority of our newest generation capacity being gas fired.

 

[SolarCity]

there was a picture asside the article, a very elderly couple (80+) in a bungalow, you might as well just go out and mug elderly people on the street, it's a disgrace.

I couldn't agree more.