EU Brexit - How will you vote given the latest "news"

[Spoon]

Sad thing is, is that I keep hearing 'change is bad' from people.......

 

[sparksburnout]

Well that little yellow bar keeps creeping up, lets hope its it reflects the hopeful outcome............

 

[Marvo]

I doubt the poll is anything close to accurate across the whole UK population, the forum members are predominantly from the working/middle class. From what I've seen most of the polls are pretty close to a 50/50 split. https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

 

[Octopus]

I doubt the poll is anything close to accurate across the whole UK population, the forum members are predominantly from the working/middle class. From what I've seen most of the polls are pretty close to a 50/50 split. https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

I was with 3 other people today.3 out, 1 in BUT he is only in because hev is trying to invest his tax evaded 14 year investment in Spain. Yes 14 years rental and 14 years of Surrey capital gains not declared!

 

[micknew]

Looks like he's on the side of common sense lol.
Joey Essex question leaves Ed Miliband stumped - ITV News

 

[sparksburnout]

The more I see of Ed Miliband the more I think he's a complete idiot. I watched him on question time, he's no idea about anything. His brother is a waste of space as well.

 

[Darkwood]

The infamous dumbest pirrock stumped the in campaign lol .... you can't really get worse than that :shocked3:

 

[Marvo]

I did a bit of scratching around to see the arguments for staying in a for exiting. I haven't lived in the UK since half way through the Thatcher years so much of the finer points of the arguments on both sides were lost on me but the one thing I did notice is how differently the two campaigns are structured.

You've got the exit side pointing to many of the UK's current woes and saying how these would improve if you were out of the EU.

Then you've got the stay side who don't seem to be pointing to much apart from fear mongering about numerous years of reduced trade and possible recession. The biggest worry for me is that most of the noise about how UK should stay in the EU is coming from other countries. Everyone from France to the US to the G7 leaders seem to want the UK to stay. Obviously none of the above are looking out for anyone other than themselves so to me it looks like remaining is definately doing everyone else a big favour but I'm not seeing any evidence it would actually be good for the UK.

 

[norcal]

How do you think the vote will go? Checked the poll here & most were for leave, but these polls are not accurate & and"regular" polls can be swayed by the way questions are phrased, so they are not always accurate either.

 

[Midwest]

Plus there's the small matter of turn out for the poll here, so to use a well known saying, 'there's lies, down right lies and statistics', closely followed by polls. Hope the turn out for the 23rd is high, or whatever the result, we will be having this all over again in a few years time.

 

[Octopus]

I did a bit of scratching around to see the arguments for staying in a for exiting. I haven't lived in the UK since half way through the Thatcher years so much of the finer points of the arguments on both sides were lost on me but the one thing I did notice is how differently the two campaigns are structured.

You've got the exit side pointing to many of the UK's current woes and saying how these would improve if you were out of the EU.

Then you've got the stay side who don't seem to be pointing to much apart from fear mongering about numerous years of reduced trade and possible recession. The biggest worry for me is that most of the noise about how UK should stay in the EU is coming from other countries. Everyone from France to the US to the G7 leaders seem to want the UK to stay. Obviously none of the above are looking out for anyone other than themselves so to me it looks like remaining is definately doing everyone else a big favour but I'm not seeing any evidence it would actually be good for the UK.

ha ha ha. The French Governments have ALWAYS made the UK's position difficult in the EU and if we stay they will be even more difficult.

If the UK leaves, the entire EU budget is screwed, and Germany and France WILL have to pay more to maintain the spending.... and France can't afford it.

Sure the UK leaving the EU will cause us temporary issues, but will also cause for some VERY difficult decisions in Brussels - and these are the ones that should be taken now...... The gravy train is about to come off the rails.........

 

[silverfox1]

A couple of reports out last week stated Germany would suffer badly from Brexit, one from a German bank has predicted Britain leaving the EU will cost the German economy almost £35 billion plunging the country into financial disrepair, the other from a leading credit insurer Euler Hermes who are based in Paris, according to Euler Hermes the German car industry would suffer a £1.5billion (€2bn) blow and the country's mechanical engineers and chemical industry would lose out on almost £1bn each, with this much at stake why did Dave achieve so little while renegotiating Britains position in the EU.

 

[andyb]

A couple of reports out last week stated Germany would suffer badly from Brexit, one from a German bank has predicted Britain leaving the EU will cost the German economy almost £35 billion plunging the country into financial disrepair, the other from a leading credit insurer Euler Hermes who are based in Paris, according to Euler Hermes the German car industry would suffer a £1.5billion (€2bn) blow and the country's mechanical engineers and chemical industry would lose out on almost £1bn each, with this much at stake why did Dave achieve so little while renegotiating Britains position in the EU.

The reports were based on the result of the inevitable down turn of the UK economy as a result of brexit.

Brexit could spark sharp rise in UK + EU insolvencies

The outers on here will now dismiss the reports authors as being in the pay of the EU, depend on the EU for their pensions, get work from the EU or whatever the dream up to dismiss yet another paper on the consequence of a brexit.

 

[andyb]

The infamous dumbest pirrock stumped the in campaign lol .... you can't really get worse than that :shocked3:

I quite like him.

 

[andyb]

Seems like almost 90% of our top economists are in the pay of Brussels too

Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit in boost for Cameron | Politics | The Guardian

 

[silverfox1]

[h=3]A report also out last week by Lawyers for Britain written by some of the most eminent legal experts in the field said BRITAIN would be legally entitled to use existing trade deals worth billions of pounds even if the country voted to leave the European Union in June and discredits claims by Chancellor George Osborne that the UK would find it “very difficult” to renegotiate trade deals with 27 EU members and 50 global trading partners. The report was hailed as a game changer by the independent Institute of Economic Affairs think tank. It’s out for me.[/h]

 

[andyb]

A report also out last week by Lawyers for Britain written by some of the most eminent legal experts in the field said BRITAIN would be legally entitled to use existing trade deals worth billions of pounds even if the country voted to leave the European Union in June and discredits claims by Chancellor George Osborne that the UK would find it “very difficult” to renegotiate trade deals with 27 EU members and 50 global trading partners. The report was hailed as a game changer by the independent Institute of Economic Affairs think tank. It’s out for me.

No need to shout Silver.

There are plenty of studies and important individuals out there giving a good argument for a brexit.
There are indeed some good reasons for brexit.

I'll try to find the report that you are referencing and have a quick read.
What I will not do is trash the report's author's to make up for a lack of argument.

 

[andyb]

This in on Lawyers For Britain's website.

Fourthly, we would wish to negotiate a trade relationship with the EU in order to preverse existing trade patterns. Since we are the EU's best customer and buy far more from the EU than we sell to them, a free trade deal is more in their interests than in ours and we would have a very strong hand in negotiating free trade on fair and reasonable terms for our mutual benefit without having to pay any sort of "price" for the great "privilege" of continuing to buy goods from the EU without imposing tariffs or other barriers on them.

They don't mention a right to existing trade deals with the EU itself. It just gives their opinion that it will be in the EU's and UKs mutual benefit to carry on as it is now with no tariffs.

I think that's a very large leap of faith.


I can find nothing on the Institute of Economic Affairs website on all. I'm not saying it's not there, just that I can't find it.
Hardly hails game changer to me.

 

[sparksburnout]

I quite like him.

Why am I not surprised? lol DW got it right, guys a pirrock.

 

[sparksburnout]

A couple of reports out last week stated Germany would suffer badly from Brexit, one from a German bank has predicted Britain leaving the EU will cost the German economy almost £35 billion plunging the country into financial disrepair, the other from a leading credit insurer Euler Hermes who are based in Paris, according to Euler Hermes the German car industry would suffer a £1.5billion (€2bn) blow and the country's mechanical engineers and chemical industry would lose out on almost £1bn each, with this much at stake why did Dave achieve so little while renegotiating Britains position in the EU.

Because he didn't try very hard. This is a very good point, it would cause turmoil in the rest of the EU if we leave, and yet they seemed to treat "Dave" with a certain amount of casual disregard. It was a golden opportunity to get some REAL concessions and he's fluffed it. You could argue, however, that he is in a very difficult position. If they DID give us some proper concessions then maybe they would expect us to join the ERM and to be a part of the Shengan agreement, both of which would obviously be a disaster. The truth is that we have never really been committed to the EU, we need to either leave, or, in the unfortunate but probable likely-hood that we remain, we need to become properly involved and start to try and sort it out rather than leaving it to a bunch of unelected half wits.

 

[silverfox1]

[FONT=&amp]Sorry Andy did not mean to shout cutting and pasting changing fonts etc, but as I see it I ask myself one question, if we were not already in the EU and we were being given this chance to become a member would I vote to join the EU now.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp] Economically the EU is not strong at the moment it’s struggling with a very low growth rate, Greece, Italy and Spain have major economic issues too.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp] The single market is it all that it seems, restricting our ability to negotiate our own trade deals, with 28 countries to negotiate for it takes forever, I believe the EU trade deal with Canada is almost finished it has taken 9 years!!
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]Britain is also pushing for a Latin American trade deal but other EU countries are blocking the deal to protect their own markets ie France not wanting Brazilian beef to be imported, it is said to be costing Britain £2.5 billion a year in lost revenue.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]We also have the migrant issue and half of sub Saharan Africa claiming to be refugees coming to EU because of Merkels naive invite, not to mention Turkey who are literally blackmailing Merkel and will almost certainly be fast tracked into the EU but that’s another story.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp] A recent EU report said Britain not building enough houses quickly enough, the European Commission warned the UK is heading for an ‘acute’ housing crisis caused by massive population growth. It admitted that first-time buyers were being hit particularly hard and the situation could worsen, with official projections saying the UK needs at least 220,000 new houses a year.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]The issue of sovereignty and the power that would be disappearing from our parliament
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp] On April 1[SUP]st[/SUP] 2017, 44 areas of policy will disappear from government control courtesy of the Lisbon treaty, the EU is a slow motion [/FONT]coup d'tat of our parliament, [FONT=&amp] plus the fact that the EU is so undemocratic , Junker has already stated the EUs intention to expand east as far as the Russian border and if the public do not like it tough we will do it anyway.
[/FONT]

[FONT=&amp]I know these reasons are not half the story and there is no perfect solution, but I feel being out would at least give us the right to decide our own destiny and return real democracy to our shores. [/FONT]

 

[Darkwood]

When we are at such a massive crossroads for the country where it can be argued that neither the IN or OUT campign can predict what will happen then to get a better understanding as to the advice been dished out then what we can do is look at history itself, in fact the recent history of deciding not to join the Euro is ideal to find what we were told and by who and what the outcome actually was, here's a very interesting report if you can take time to read it, the scary thing here is its almost like De Je' Vue with the IN campaigns scare tactics with the same people giving the same doomsday stories and the BBC having a biased lean towards the IN in the way it reports and discusses the EU.
The great euro swindle | The Spectator

 

[silverfox1]

When we are at such a massive crossroads for the country where it can be argued that neither the IN or OUT campign can predict what will happen then to get a better understanding as to the advice been dished out then what we can do is look at history itself, in fact the recent history of deciding not to join the Euro is ideal to find what we were told and by who and what the outcome actually was, here's a very interesting report if you can take time to read it, the scary thing here is its almost like De Je' Vue with the IN campaigns scare tactics with the same people giving the same doomsday stories and the BBC having a biased lean towards the IN in the way it reports and discusses the EU.
The great euro swindle | The Spectator

Unbelievable it is deja vu and as you say with many of the same protagonists involved, a good read thanks.

 

[Octopus]

When we are at such a massive crossroads for the country where it can be argued that neither the IN or OUT campign can predict what will happen then to get a better understanding as to the advice been dished out then what we can do is look at history itself, in fact the recent history of deciding not to join the Euro is ideal to find what we were told and by who and what the outcome actually was, here's a very interesting report if you can take time to read it, the scary thing here is its almost like De Je' Vue with the IN campaigns scare tactics with the same people giving the same doomsday stories and the BBC having a biased lean towards the IN in the way it reports and discusses the EU.
The great euro swindle | The Spectator

Hit, nail and head spring to mind.

The BBC can't trusted on much these days when it reports the news and as for the "balanced" audiences for programs like Question Time and the shameful "debate" on the EU the other night - the "in's were very "ethnic" and the "outs" were very white.

Shame really as they used to be trusted by nearly all of us.

 

[sparksburnout]

Hit, nail and head spring to mind.

The BBC can't trusted on much these days when it reports the news and as for the "balanced" audiences for programs like Question Time and the shameful "debate" on the EU the other night - the "in's were very "ethnic" and the "outs" were very white.

Shame really as they used to be trusted by nearly all of us.

That's exactly right Murdoch. They always seem to pick people who look like they have just come off an EDL march to represent the outs. I thought it was just me but obviously others have noticed, might as well call them the Biased Broadcasting Company.

 

[Octopus]

That's exactly right Murdoch. They always seem to pick people who look like they have just come off an EDL march to represent the outs. I thought it was just me but obviously others have noticed, might as well call them the Biased Broadcasting Company.

ha ha.

That was my "name" on the BBC have your say until THEY changed it.

 

[andyb]

Hit, nail and head spring to mind.

The BBC can't trusted on much these days when it reports the news and as for the "balanced" audiences for programs like Question Time and the shameful "debate" on the EU the other night - the "in's were very "ethnic" and the "outs" were very white.

Shame really as they used to be trusted by nearly all of us.

Are you talking about the debate at Chatham House Murdoch?

 

[Octopus]

Are you talking about the debate at Chatham House Murdoch?

No the Victoria Derbyshire one last week.

This isn't anything new for the BBC. Back in 1997 I was in the audience for Question Time - the production staff made sure that all the white people were around the edges and centre of the audience was very ethnic mixed except white!

 

[sparksburnout]

That Viccy Derbyshire debate was a joke. I like VD but I have to say the choice of audience was a joke, including the "we have built this country" comment from some suitably chosen 1st generation immigrant. What a load of rubbish.

 

[andyb]

That Viccy Derbyshire debate was a joke. I like VD but I have to say the choice of audience was a joke, including the "we have built this country" comment from some suitably chosen 1st generation immigrant. What a load of rubbish.

No the Victoria Derbyshire one last week.

This isn't anything new for the BBC. Back in 1997 I was in the audience for Question Time - the production staff made sure that all the white people were around the edges and centre of the audience was very ethnic mixed except white!

Just watched it. Can you please tell me where the bias was?
55 don't knows, 40 for remain and 40 for brexit. All in three well defined groups. The questions seemed balanced to me and the 4 people making the case (two from each side) seemed to me to have roughly the same opportunity to respond.

VD did say something that I thought was probably slightly out of order, but on the whole I thought she chaired it well.

 

[Octopus]

Me thinks he's telling porkies AGAIN:

We can control migration inside EU, says PM - BBC News

 

[andyb]

Me thinks he's telling porkies AGAIN:

We can control migration inside EU, says PM - BBC News

You're right Murdoch, he is lying.
He can no more control imigration in the EU than he could if we were out.

Sent from my SM-T700 using Tapatalk

 

[Midwest]

I watched almost all of that Q&A, and IMO he convinced me. Gonna watch the Gove one tonight, to see if he can convince me otherwise.

 

[Darkwood]

I watched almost all of that Q&A, and IMO he convinced me. Gonna watch the Gove one tonight, to see if he can convince me otherwise.

How did he convince you?.. From what I saw he spent the majority of the time deflecting questions, avoiding answers and when he finally did answer on how do we control immigration he suggested a flawed system that has been failing for the last several years because it doesn't work - how do you expect to deport anyone if they cannot find a job in 6months when we still have a backlog of criminals in the system, enough to fill a small town that we cannot even deport due to EU hoops and red tape thats needed to just deport 1 person... the other week the EU overuled the UK and let a known rapist back into the UK because they didn't deem his history was cause to return him back to his country so it looks like we cannot even send a rapist home now!

 

[Octopus]

You're right Murdoch, he is lying.
He can no more control imigration in the EU than he could if we were out.

Sent from my SM-T700 using Tapatalk

It would be easy to control if we were out. The decisions would be ours to make and take.

Cameron will be history after the 24th June - any credibility he had is evaporating fast now

 

[Midwest]

How did he convince you?.. From what I saw he spent the majority of the time deflecting questions, avoiding answers and when he finally did answer on how do we control immigration he suggested a flawed system that has been failing for the last several years because it doesn't work - how do you expect to deport anyone if they cannot find a job in 6months when we still have a backlog of criminals in the system, enough to fill a small town that we cannot even deport due to EU hoops and red tape thats needed to just deport 1 person... the other week the EU overuled the UK and let a known rapist back into the UK because they didn't deem his history was cause to return him back to his country so it looks like we cannot even send a rapist home now!

I'm not a political animal like some. In my opinion I thought he gave some good replies, he was asked a lot of different questions, and I don't know the format of the Q&A, but he gave answers to all questions and seem to have a knowledge of each subject.

Whilst immigration is an emotive subject at the moment, I don't thing ones whole decision should be based just on that. As someone said this week, if we leave, our borders will move from el Calais to Dover.

Another thing concerns me, is the amount of corporate organisations stating they will relocate if we leave. In my opinion, jobs and economics are one of the key concerns over whether to leave or stay.

I'll watch the flip side, tonight I think it is, and see what Grove has to say.

 

[andyb]

It would be easy to control if we were out. The decisions would be ours to make and take.

Well the facts do not bear that out Murdoch.
Cameron got in on a promise to get immigration down to the tens of thousands. We have total control over non EU immigration and that is nowhere near that figure. In theory we could stop non EU immigration over night but the reality is different.
Outside the EU will be the same. We will still not be able to control immigration.

However I still think you will get your way. The economy will be so trashed that no one will want to come here and there will be no jobs for them even if they did.

Cameron will be history after the 24th June - any credibility he had is evaporating fast now

I hope you're right. But not with Johnson or Osborne taking over.

 

[Darkwood]

I'm not a political animal like some. In my opinion I thought he gave some good replies, he was asked a lot of different questions, and I don't know the format of the Q&A, but he gave answers to all questions and seem to have a knowledge of each subject.

Whilst immigration is an emotive subject at the moment, I don't thing ones whole decision should be based just on that. As someone said this week, if we leave, our borders will move from el Calais to Dover.

Another thing concerns me, is the amount of corporate organisations stating they will relocate if we leave. In my opinion, jobs and economics are one of the key concerns over whether to leave or stay.

I'll watch the flip side, tonight I think it is, and see what Grove has to say.

If will leave our border will remain the same as it is now at dover, our agreement with france to regarding the Calais / Dover arrangment is a deal external to the EU and does not rely on our membership, also it is in both the UK and France's best interest to leave it as it is as this reduces the attraction of using france as a route to Britain, this was the reason it was set up and agreed by both parties... and it worked as it reduced the flow benefiting us both. France has already said there is no intention to change the arrangement if we leave and that was when the IN campaign realised there bluff had been called and stopped saying it (although a few out of touch scaremongerers still say it).

As for the large business throwing scare stories out there about moving or staff reductions... well mostly its just that and the victims if any will be the cheap labour they have access to in the EU, its in all our membership agreements that and exit from the EU will not effect any existing jobs or residences already settled in any country so leaving would not see us sacking and sending back those already employed or resident and vice versa.

As goes for the economical argument, yes there will be job losses as their will be if we remain, everyone seems to forget all those UK citizens that lost their careers and jobs due to EU migration driving down wages replacing our jobs with cheaper labour etc... if we left we already have sealed agreements ready to open worth 10's of billions with the likes of India, Canada etc which at the moment are off the table because the EU has blocked them trading with us due to the likes of other members vetoing the deals like france who say they would loose out if we traded with Canada... so as it goes at the moment a large restriction is been put on out economical growth to protect other members who have a bee in their bonnet and don't like competition. Yes jobs will be lost in the adjustment in the short term but long term we will be free from the stagnated growth of the EU and join the rest of the world and see a healthy growth which means a richer country, higher wages and more jobs.

So far all I have seen is these big corporates who are self interested in our position within the EU make comment and all with regards to their position and ignoring what is best for the country as a whole.

 

[Midwest]

darkwood, I'm off to make the tea. Your obviously well in entombed with the debate, but I'm a political lightweight. More than two paragraphs put me to sleep.

I'll have a read later of your post. No offence.

 

[Octopus]

Well the facts do not bear that out Murdoch.
Cameron got in on a promise to get immigration down to the tens of thousands. We have total control over non EU immigration and that is nowhere near that figure. In theory we could stop non EU immigration over night but the reality is different.
Outside the EU will be the same. We will still not be able to control immigration.

However I still think you will get your way. The economy will be so trashed that no one will want to come here and there will be no jobs for them even if they did.




I hope you're right. But not with Johnson or Osborne taking over.

As I stated, the decisions WOULD be ours to take and make.

As for a Cameron replacement - I can see the Conservatives with a "jeremy corbyn" at the wheel.

The UK doesn't have ANY true leaders at the moment - they are pretty much ALL career politicians without back bones.

 

[telectrix]

well, jeremy clarkson is currently "unbusy". he's the better option of a JC to lead the UK.

 

[Midwest]

well, jeremy clarkson is currently "unbusy". he's the better option of a JC to lead the UK.

Don't know why that block gets some much good press, he's more 'Chipping Norton' than Cameron.

 

[Pete999]

Me thinks he's telling porkies AGAIN:

We can control migration inside EU, says PM - BBC News

You can tell when he is lying, his lips move.

 

[telectrix]

mornin, pete.

 

[Octopus]

You can tell when he is lying, his lips move.

The thing is Pete, on this VERY subject, we all know he's lying as one of the key aims of the EU is freedom of movement and on this basis the Brussels "mob" will not change this - so such a pledge or promised is an unachievable goal.

For me the entire EU strategy now is is about not allowing the Euro to fail - at ANY cost. This means that until the Germans and French agree to treaty change so that ALL the Euro zone countries have political AND fiscal union the mess will only get worse.

 

[Midwest]

You can tell when he is lying, his lips move.

Good shout. To help me making my decision, can you identify me the politician, who's not economical with the truth on this subject?

 

[Octopus]

Good shout. To help me making my decision, can you identify me the politician, who's not economical with the truth on ANY subject?

Corrected that for you!

 

[Midwest]

Corrected that for you!

So I'm stuffed then, can't trust any of them (Leave or Remain). Gonna have to make the decision for myself? Any ideas where I can get some impartial advice? :confused5:

 

[Octopus]

So I'm stuffed then, can't trust any of them (Leave or Remain). Gonna have to make the decision for myself? Any ideas where I can get some impartial advice? :confused5:

I was in the audience for the the Clegg v Ferage EU debate a couple of years ago. I didn't think they were telling us the truth then and I don't think ANYONE is telling us the truth now.

That said you have to remember that Germany and France will do ANYTHING to protect the Euro - the weaker countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy should have been allowed to leave around 2010 - and if they had the EU would have returned to growth a long time ago.

AND remember ALL new countries HAVE to join the Euro when joining the EU.........

 

[andyb]

I don't think ANYONE is telling us the truth now.

They can't all be lying Murdoch.

Remain says there will be job losses, Brexiters say there will not.
Remain says the economy will suffer, Brexiters say it will not
Remain says there will be an impact on security, Brexiters say there will be no impact
Brexiters say we send £350m a week to the EU, remain say we do not

And on and on.

On most points they are arguing polar opposites.

Gonna have to make the decision for myself? Any ideas where I can get some impartial advice? :confused5:

That's right MW. You have to find out as much as you can yourself and make a judgement on that.

Enjoy.