Changes to FIT coming sooner that we thought!

[Energetic]

£860 million is a tiny fraction of what the bankers got and are still getting, orders of magnitude away. The FiT is promoting growth and employment and bringing in a handsome revenue for HMRC in tax for the 25,000 jobs created so far with a tiny impact on general energy bills ( and no impact to the treasury).

The current system needs work, it's not perfect. It's too generous and provision needs to be made for the majority of people who don't have £10k + sitting idle (green deal hopefully) but >50% cuts will not help the industry.

Why are interest rates relevant to FiT payback? Low interest rates are a just another bonus for irresponsible insolvent banks so why should we suffer again and again for their mistakes?

 

[solgen]

Whatever the outcome on Monday I would like to thank all of you on this forum for all the valuable advice I have received in response to some of the questions I have posted and from browsing QA's. As an engineer working for corporates most of my life, the solar PV industry finally gave me that opportunity too set up a business where I could be independant from the self important, supercilious managers who quite frankly had no idea how to run a business. I'm still on the receiving end of the same type of incompetent managing where futures are thrown into jeopardy.

I like to take an oozi to those gits! :73:

 

[tom.stilwell]

The company i work for has been in the PV industry for 7 years, we are currently booking work for mid febuary and have just over 1.3 million pounds worth of orders confirmed to take place. A cut like this will mean we will have to give back lots of deposits and let down many customers. I cannot believe a discrace to the industry like this can be allowed to take place, many people have invested serious amounts of time and money into what 'was' an evolving industry all of which may well turn out to be a waste! I do hope for all our sakes this will not be the case.

Good luck to all of you!

 

[feebs73]

Well what can I say, I have been sitting on the fence for a bit of time whether to make the investment or not, being an electrician some of my customers have asked me to install pv for them as trust is a great form of confidence when investing 10k, being a small company it has taken a lot of money to gain the 2399 and a loss of earnings, the qms system and still not quite there. I land 4 jobs and one of my customers has just phoned me in a panic. I just don’t know what to say about it there’s no way I will install and get accessed and get the FIT all done. What a waste of time effort and trouble with the wife.
just have to wait and see.

 

[alank]

I am about to place an order for a 4kw system. I am now worried that it will not be installed and passed off in time. I have seen the question asked on this thread three times but it has not been answered.

How long does it take from install to completion and signing off so the still gets the current FiT payment, One week?, six weeks???? ie if it is installed next week, when will it all be passed off paper work wise?

If I am not given a set in stone guarantee by the installer that it will all be done before 8th December, I cannot go ahead with the order.

 

[kate.harrison1]

Alank,
We have just had ours done and the papers have all been sent off. I'm sure someone will contradict me if I am wrong but in my experience, there is no reason why the system cannot be signed off as soon as the install is complete. Mine took about a day and a half(2 on the roof and 2 electricians). You should then be given a whole bunch of papers and you can perhaps, as I did with Scottish Power, print the claim form from the internet. As long as you send all the forms they ask for including the MCS certificate which your installer should give you, you should be able to send it off the day of installation or the next day. How long it will take after that and whether there will be any deliberate stalling tactics, your guess is as good as mine!

Good luck anyway.

 

[SRE]

Well - I thought it would be a good idea to take time out of very busy schedule to see what the solar trade show had to offer. Got to Birmingham 4hours after finishing work last night and crashed without checking the forum. Spent half the day looking at gear at the trade show then got a garbled message about disasters and some info about the cuts but haven't really got the full picture until tonight.

Going up the M6 tonight we ordered 10 inverters, the rest of the roof kit we needed, cancelled a holiday we've had booked since Feb, geared up the roofer and scaffolder, sent texts to some of our customers, panels are already on order - can someone help with the weather - every one of our jobs bar 2 are slate, just got to work out to get 2.5 months wok into 4 weeks.


I forsee many bodged jobs - who gives a damn about mcs now, there a few of us who will maintain standards and many more who won't, MCS installation database crashing on a daily basis with the volume and as much time spent on the phone apologising to customers who are in the middle of planning applications as to those customers who have taken their time committing to installations who now can't have any work done at the current rate and just as much time saying to no to every other customer who has realised they have waited too long.

I know of an installer who has 3 x 50kwp systems installed but not commissioned because the DNO has been too busy to get the work done - where do they stand - bust me thinks :-(

 

[JD6400]

I would like to amend that to dislike !!!!!!!!
Obviously not at yourself SRE .

 

[SolarCity]

Greg Barker is on Radio 4 this morning at 8:45......

 

[Markc]

Guy's

The Internet has been known to be wrong before! Lets wait till Monday before we stand around the hole throwing dirt on the coffin.

 

[Scooby]

And he (Greg Barker) confirmed it all - except, unfortunately - the sums involved. Basically the usual stuff - people making double-digit returns on what was meant to be a green incentive, the cost of materials having come down by about 30% ('and as much as 70% some people report').

Shame he wasn't tackled on the actual sums - whether it was going to be 21p and 8th Dec.

Usual unhelpful stuff - it's all confirmed, but we don't know what 'it' is.

 

[Scooby]

Markc, I don't think it's the 'internet' that's wrong here. Either this document is genuine and gives a good reflection of the gov's plans, or it's a 'hardener' so the actual FIT cut won't look as bad (yes, governments do do this - very cynical, but hey...), or it is their current intention but pressure will make them amend it.

I think that's the three scenarios.

(And I said 'do-do'. fnurr fnurr...)

 

[SolarCity]

I'd love to know where he got his figures from. Solar installs have not come down 70% at all (unless you go by Anglian's highest figures a couple of years ago and some of the budget installers price now - clearly not a fair comparison)

You'd hope, wouldn't you, that the man that has 25,000 jobs in his hands would have some more accurate figures at hand.

 

[SRE]

I used to work for and with EST - they are used as a DECC mouthpiece all of the time. I'd be surprised if the figures and times mooted aren't reasonably accurate. It's not in EST's interest to scaremonger in 15 years working with them I never saw anthing like that.

I think Scooby's last scenario is the most likely option and tbh after the solar farm debacle in the summer I wouldn't hold out hope for any significant changes.

Talking to the guys at the Solar Power Portal stand in Birmingham yesterday, their off the record comments were that if it hadn't been for half the cabinet being in Brussels sorting out the Euro crisis Greg Barker would have been making the announcement (and dodging the rotten tomatoes ) on Thursday - that's why his speech was full of hot air!

 

[Scooby]

Little double he threw in the 'as much as 70%' bit 'cos it sounds good and adds meat to his argument. The 'some say' bit means he doesn't have to justify it in any way. Again, typical politic-speak.

But, hey, perhaps that little washer that helps clamp the bracket down has dropped by 70%...

 

[Scooby]

Gentlemen, it's up to all of you (installers) to make as much noise as possible on this. Do write and visit your MP. Do sign the epetition. Do, er, other stuff too.

Everything you've said on this thread, say it to those who can be influenced.

At least try and get them to stage the increments so's it'll only drop by, say, 10p in December and then perhaps another drop next year - so's it at least matches the drop in materials costs a little bit.

 

[SolarCity]

I definitely agree that we should do something but are we not on the outside looking in? The announcement is about to be made Monday. Surely it's too late?

What I do know is that I was never involved in any 'consultation' and I do wonder who exactly got involved in that. I'd dearly love for him to sit with me while I go through my email feed from the last 24 hours.

The solar industry is a glorious success story, rising from the ashes of the recession. These 'men in suits' are about to kick us all down once again.

In the meantime, I will write to my MP - I worry that it may be too little too late though.

 

[malcolmsanford]

I'm so sorry for the genuine lads like Bruce, Biggs, MarkC, SRE etc that investment and time in this part of the industry seems to have now hit a real snag.

Unfortunately it is a rare beast to change a governments mind, if a years strike didn't do it then a petition certainly won't.

I'm with the other lads I'm sure it will not be as draconian and the same platitudes of we have listened to the industry and decided it will now be this .................will be wheeled out.

It gives me no pleasure really to be a told you so, but the current situation could not go on, it is ok to levy subsidies on something when times are affluent, times are not now and with price hikes of the magnitude we have had over the last few months on energy, which do not reflect PV levies I must add, make people angry and aware that they are subsidizing a privilege few who can afford the systems.

I hope truly it is not as bad as it is rumored

 

[malcoa]

Nooooooooooo, i have had my first install on tuesday that wont get inspected untill january for my accreditation, dont know what to do-tell the client what?? He's put his trust in me for this

 

[series530]

I'll state where I am first and what I think second:

It can't have been anything like the anguish that the solar installers have suffered in the past few days but, even as a customer, it isn't plain sailing for me either. I have 14 beautiful Sanyo panels on my roof driving an open circuit. Thanks must go to Enecsys for this. I knew there would be a delay and my installer has been pretty honest with me. The latest bit of news from the Government sent me into recoil. I contacted my installer and he told me that Enecsys are delivering now and we set a provisional system completion date of November 8th. I can live with that provided Enecsys don't screw up. If there is any doubt I will tell my installer to put a string inverter in instead. The cabling is inside the roof and if it requires a bit of extra engineering, so what. The key thing is to hit the FIT this year. If I am honest, I think I will be OK. In fact, I will be laughing to some extent having got on the holy grail of FIT payouts. My house will be worth a load more because of the extra money coming in and I will be getting a much faster return on my outlay than anybody who comes along after December 8th. Excellent! *

That's the face of it. Thinking it through a little bit more, is it quite that clear cut? I honestly don't think that it is. Admittedly, with micro inversion, Sanyo panels and an independent 10 year warranty (taken deliberately for immunity of my supplier going some place else), my system is not cheap. Pretty pricey if the truth be known. If I compare and contrast it with a colleagues installation about 6 months earlier: he's out for a good price and his installer offered me a good price. However, what he has is about 1KWp less than mine and has a string inverter and, as far as I can tell, it isn't much cheaper than mine. If I look at what is being referenced on this forum, 4KWp systems are down around the £10K mark for a one size fits all kit. I can fully understand why the FIT is being reduced. I don't agree with the draconian approach to the reduction but I think that the principle is fair. Easy for me to say as I ride the crest of the wave, I know. Is it fair though, to be getting 12 or 15 or 18 percent returns as we progress quarter by quarter just because I have (had) some cash in the bank? Probably not.

Now, here's where I think it could be good for a fair proportion of the PV installers. I wont debate the fact that some will go to the wall. That is unfortunate. It is equally unfortunate for those who have invested huge sums in infrastructure only to find their market culled by the measures on the horizon. That said, if this cull can get rid of the more recent bottom feeders who have gravitated into this industry on the strength of rich pickings , it has to be a good thing. With luck, it will get rid of the rent a roofers who are swindling pensioners out of their life savings (they tried it with my parents ... but failed) and the double glazing salesmen who don't know the first thing about... well, anything. Is that bad? I think not.
After the cut there will be a time when the market is tough. That is an inevitability. However, stick your money in a bank and see a 3% return. Chance it on the stock market and loose your shirt. Stick it into home improvements and see the housing market drop... there are no end of investments that offer a pretty poor return. Stick it in PV and, even after the reduction in the tariff, it isn't a bad return. Plus, it's tax free. Added to this, if material costs still reduce, albeit less quickly than before, the pay back will still reduce. It will become attractive again. People will want to buy. Less of them, but there will be less suppliers and the market will be self regulating.

Good companies, if well managed, will survive. Reputation will see to that. Diversification will help. Not everyone will want to have the lowest price quote. I hope, for the sake of the installers, there will be people out there who want a decent system with a reasonable harvest and will be prepared to pay for a quality system. Buy a new car and you could buy a bottom of the range Kia (no disrespect to Kia ... just an illustration). So why buy a Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar or a BMW? Simply because you want and can afford something better. I don't see PV being that much different: better harvest, more cash incentive than somebody else, more sexy interfaces, whatever.

The companies that will flourish are the ones that rise above the bottom feeding layer - I am convinced that, provided those companies can get through the next six months, there will still be a market for them and they will be able to make a healthy living. Many will go, for sure - some sadly, some, thankfully... but there will still be a market for quality conscious reputation driven organisations.


* in case you are wondering, I don't honestly believe that it will make a scrap of difference to the value of my house. Easier to sell, perhaps. Worth more, no.